Will the UK see a ‘Third Wave’ of COVID-19?

Professor Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Advisor at the Public Health Conference in March stated that all the statistical modelling and the fact that the virus is spreading at a rapid rate in Europe, all suggest that a third wave is unavoidable.  

Reinforcing the point during a press conference in March, Boris Johnson also warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will “wash up on our shores” from Europe.  In this news report he stated that the UK should be “under no illusion” and we will “feel effects” of growing cases on the continent.

These comments may cause alarm to some individuals however evidence from leading health and scientific experts all validate and reinforce the points made by Professor Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson.

The question posed here is why is this third wave inevitable?  

Professor Whitty explained at the conference that “variants are going to cause problems, there will be stockouts of vaccines and no doubt there will be multiple problems at a national level but also at a local level – school outbreaks, prison outbreaks, all those things that people are dealing with on a day-to-day basis.”  

It is clear that the rise variants of COVID-19 are prevalent in the UK today, variants commonly reported are those linked to South Africa, Brazil and now notably from India. This does not take into consideration that there are in fact UK based variants, that are currently being investigated by Public Health England’s scientific team.  

Interestingly, Boris’s comments detailed earlier in this article were made when rows over Covid-19 vaccine supplies were making headline news in the EU. Clearly backing the points made by Professor Whitty about stockouts and issues surrounding the Vaccine roll out Programme.  

Is it possible to delay the third wave of COVID-19?  

Traditionally Easter and the extended weekend break has been a time for social and family gatherings however having restrictions still in place, has no doubt helped in slowing down the process of this third wave.  The question still remains about the Government’s medium to long term plans, what are they and how can they slow the process of the third wave of COVID-19.  

It was reported that the vaccine not only protects those vaccinated; the Vaccine Programme will also help slow transmission. Some evidence suggests that individuals who are vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine could stop two thirds of people from passing on the virus.  Additionally, it is estimated that about a quarter of the population will have some immunity.  

Furthermore, we are now in the Spring this may help slow down the process as respiratory viruses tend to thrive in Winter months. Professor Chris Whitty stated that it is possible a significant rise may not actually come until the Winter, giving more time for the Vaccination Programme to rollout.  He stated that the UK should be confident the “path from here does look better”, but we should still expect “bumps and twists” along the way.

In essence, it appears the successful rollout of the Vaccination Programme and the seasonal changes may well ‘buy’ us more time.  From a positive perspective, as Professor Chris Whitty states, “the path from here on in does look better than the last year.” 

How can the Care & Residential Sector negate and face the challenges of a potential third wave?  

The Sector has been ‘hit hard’ with countless restrictions, forcing Homes to constantly review procedures and protocols. The pandemic has not only had a huge impact on those working within the sector but also residents, their families and loved ones.  In short, it has been an extremely tough and unrelenting time for all in the sector.  

The question raised here; how is the government supporting the sector? Interestingly, a recent BBC news article stated that more than £340m of government funding has been earmarked to extend rapid testing to care homes and free PPE (personal protective equipment) until March 2022.  This funding will help to alleviate some of the financial burden faced by Residential and Care homes. 

However, the potential third wave also raises a very pressing point about mandatory vaccinations for staff particularly those caring for older adults. In fact, there is a fierce debate of mandatory vaccinations in care homes that ensues at the moment.  Is this one of the necessary ways of mitigating the risks?  A five-week consultation was launched in mid-April looking at vaccinations for those key workers caring for older adults.  Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said: “Older people living in care homes are most at risk of suffering serious consequences of COVID-19 and we have seen the grave effects the virus has had on this group.”

It is evident that a third wave is unavoidable however as the UK eases out of this lockdown, it is apparent that the general public and sectors such as the Care and Residential must continue to take heed of the advice by the Public Health England and Government agencies. It is apparent that there are some tough decisions to be made by the Care and Residential sector, local authorities and the Government with regards to mandatory vaccinations for staff working on the frontline. 

The message that should resonate with us all is from Professor Chris Whitty that, “the path from here does look better than the last year.”